Gold, Silver and Precious Metals Continue to Outperform the Marketby: Tom Cleveland, September 14, 2010
for : goldbasics.blogspot.com
From an investor perspective, the year of 2010 will go down in history as one of strange behavior, as basic time-honored correlations broke down and risk aversion seemed to grip the fragile psychology of both traders and investors alike. The threat of debt defaults from Greece and several other European member states have produced a steady drip of news on our respective foreheads since last year, while fears of a double-dip recession have blinded everyone’s vision of the road ahead.
The stars on this global stage have been
Gold, Silver and other precious metals. Gold has had such incredible appreciation over the past decade that it is sometimes difficult to believe that it is not perched upon a precipice, waiting for an inevitable correction to occur. Other than general surges and minor consolidations, due more to speculation than anything else,
Gold continues to outperform other basic indexes on an annual basis. Traditional correlations have also been broken in the process as the Dollar and Gold have chosen to join themselves at the hip for all of 2010, a break in the expected inverse trend.
Gold is not alone.
Silver and other precious metals have also fared well over the period, although not to the same extent. Today, once again, Gold and Silver spiked up due to contrary news coming from Europe. Each metal has made significant gains during 2010, as new record highs have been set along each metal’s respective triumphal path.
The correlation in growth between both metals for the last year, as depicted in the chart above, has been quite remarkable. For the year, Gold rests at about 25% while Silver is just below 20%. The S&P 500 index has eked out an 8% gain, perhaps a little higher if dividends are thrown in, but the comparison is the reality of the moment, even after a record earnings season for the June quarter where earnings year-over-year were in the 35-40% range. More importantly, Gold and the stock index have been inversely correlated since May. The S&P 500 index just crossed its 200-day moving average, a sign of better times to come, but coincidentally enough, Gold just set a new record high in the process. Do correlations mean anything in this year of “strangeness”?
The breakdown in traditional correlations has confounded many analysts as they search for indications of how temporary these reversals might be.
Currency trading has benefited from recent volatility, but choosing a currency to ride may not have the same gleam as Gold. Gold has always appreciated when the Dollar depreciates, but not so for the past year. The opposite has been true regarding the Euro and Gold, but once again, the times, they are a-changing. Gold and the greenback have be entwined in a dance for nearly ten months, while the Euro has become a wallflower searching for a potential suitor.
Risk aversion and its related flight of capital to safe havens are seen as the villains on this dance floor. Under these conditions, the primary beneficiaries are U.S. Treasury Bills and precious metals, especially Gold and Silver. Increased demand across the board has kept the Dollar and metals on their upward tracks. However, currencies do not have intrinsic value. Capital outflows may impact the relative value of the Dollar, but Gold is hardly a temporary investment.
"The question on everyone’s lips is whether now is a good time to buy
more Gold or Silver? Timing , which also applies in
forex appears to be the only concern these days. Technical
indicators presently show that both metals are in an “overbought”
condition, suggesting that a small correction in price may be imminent. In
the last three weeks alone, Silver has risen 15%, while Gold marched on at
a 5% clip. A small pullback is to be expected after such impressive run
ups."
What do the fundamentals say? Here is a quick recap for Gold:
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Intrinsic Value: There is no sign that Gold will lose its luster or safe haven status;
*
Hedge Against Inflation: Over time, interest rates in the developed world will move up as recoveries proceed. Inflation concerns in the U.K. already exist. Gold is the perfect hedge for the perfect “inflation storm” that is slowly brewing in developed countries;
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Mining Prospects: Taxes on mining interests has not slowed exploration, but new supplies are not expected to flood the market;
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Industrial Usage: No signs for decline foreseen in this area;
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Current Inventories: Central banks have no reason to release or sell their massive reserves. China would gladly exchange Dollar CDs for Gold today.
The year of 2010 has confounded investors, but Gold and other precious metals continue to retain their intrinsic values and appreciate beyond everyone’s expectations. Entry timing may be the only concern at the moment.
Tom Cleveland 5218 Shirley Rd. Gainesville, GA 30506
tgcleveland@gmail.com September 14, 2010
